The Scientific Evidence

PART I: Global warming explained


What is the greenhouse effect and how it works

The term 'greenhouse effect' is a description of the natural way the atmosphere works to regulate the Earth's surface temperature. Below are a series of diagrams which show how the greenhouse effect works.

The greenhouse effect

In the greenhouse, sun rays pass through the glass and some heat (infra-red radiation) is absorbed by the ground.

However, most of heat is radiated away from the ground.

As the heat hits the glass, most passes through, while some is reflected back by the glass.

This increases the temperature inside the greenhouse and makes it possible for plants which like warm climates to grow.




The natural greenhouse effect

The diagram below shows the natural greenhouse effect. Like the greenhouse, the suns rays shine down on the Earth and while some energy is absorbed by the ground, most of heat is radiated back into the atmosphere.

The greenhouse gasses which form naturally in the atmosphere reflect some of the heat back, making the Earth warm enough for plants and animals to live.

Our atmosphere works differently to that of the glass in a greenhouse, however the results are similar and that is why the term greenhouse effect is used.

Natural greenhouse effect The natural greenhouse effect



What would happen without a natural greenhouse effect?

The diagram below shows what would happen if we had no natural greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. There is nothing to stop the infra-red radiation continuing out into space.

Without the natural greenhouse effect the temperature on the Earth would be similar to the moon (-18°C or 0 F) which has a very thin atmosphere.

No atmosphere Thin atmosphere
What are greenhouse gases?

There are a number of gases in the atmosphere which absorb infra-red radiation leaving the Earth which causes the greenhouse effect.


The main greenhouse gases:
  • Carbon Dioxide
  • Methane
  • Nitrous Oxide
  • Ozone
  • Water Vapour

There are also a number of other gases which are produced by industry, however these are made in very low amounts in comparison to Carbon Dioxide.

The most important greenhouse gas is Carbon Dioxide because it accounts for about 60% of the enhancement of the greenhouse effect. (1)

The enhanced greenhouse effect

Carbon Dioxide occurs naturally mainly from volcanic out-gassing, the burning of plants and trees and when living organisms breathe.

However, since the industrial revolution in the 1800’s, humans have contributed greatly to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.

People have been increasing the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere because of:-

  • Power generation in coal fired power plants
  • Transportation, the use of carbon-based fuels in cars, buses, trucks & planes
  • Industrial processes such as steel manufacture

Gobal atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide
SOURCES: Gobal atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide
TP Whorf Scripps, Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Institution of Oceanography (SIO),
University of California La Jolla, California, United States, 1999
URL: http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/07.htm
Cartographer/Designer: Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal


Prior to the industrial revolution the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere was about 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume)(2). In 2006 it was recorded that the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere was 380 ppmv.

The increase of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere is much more than would normally happen in natural circumstances. This is called the enhanced greenhouse effect.


Natural greenhouse effect The enhanced greenhouse effect

On the left is the natural greenhouse effect and on the right is a build-up of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere, creating a thicker ‘blanket’ around the planet. As the infra-red radiation is kept in by greenhouse gases, the temperature increases.

These diagrams are simplified in order to make the explanation easy. There are a number of other factors that are involved in greenhouse effect, for more detail click here.



Global warming

When the average surface temperature of the Earth increases, this is referred to as global warming.(3) Since the late 1800's, the global average temperature has increased about 0.4 to 0.7 degrees Celcius.(4)

PART II: Global warming science

There has been a large amount of research into global warming by scientists from around the world.

This research will be quoted in order to answers a number of questions about global warming. These reports represent the most internationally respected and thorough research available today.

The following three reports will be quoted:-



STERN REVIEW
"The Economics of Climate Change"

Dated: 2006
For: The UK government Treasury

Click on this link to download the Stern Review



IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
"Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers"

Dated: April 2007
For: United Nations

Click on this link to download the IPCC 4th Assessment Report



CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
"Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions"

Dated: February 2006
For: The Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change

Click on this link to download the CSIRO Report

Are human activities responsible for global warming?

"An overwhelming body of scientific evidence now clearly indicates that climate change is a serious and urgent issue. The Earth’s climate is rapidly changing, mainly as a result of increases in greenhouse gases caused by human activities."

Stern Review Part 1, p.2

There is a "very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming."

IPCC p.3

"The global atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm3 in 2005." "The primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide since the pre-industrial period results from fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another significant but smaller contribution."

IPCC p.2

"Australia is one of the many global regions experiencing significant climate change as a result of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from human activities."

IPCC p.2
Has there already been some recent global warming?

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level."

"Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature9 (since 1850)."

Global average near-surface temperatures 1850-2005
Global average near-surface temperatures 1850-2005
SOURCES: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and CRU, University of East Angila


"The total temperature increase from 1850 to 2005 is 0.76 C".

IPCC p.4

"The average surface air temperature of Australia increased by 0.7°C over the past century – warming that has been accompanied by marked declines in regional precipitation, particularly along the east and west coasts of the continent. These seemingly small changes have already had widespread consequences for Australia."

CSIRO p.5
Is our understanding of global warming improving?

"The scientific evidence on the causes and future paths of climate change is strengthening all the time. In particular, scientists are now able to attach probabilities to the temperature outcomes and impacts on the natural environment associated with different levels of stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Scientists also now understand much more about the potential for dynamic feedbacks that have, in previous times of climate change, strongly amplified the underlying physical processes."

Stern Review exec p.iii
Contributors to global warming

The following diagram shows a number of countries and their levels of Carbon Dioxide emissions per capita.

It also shows that the most developed countries in the world are also the ones who are contributing the most to the problem of global warming. The countries that can afford to do the most should be leading the way in fixing the problem. However, the United States and Australia still have not agreed to the Kyoto Protocol.



Annual emissions per person in (t C02e)
Annual emissions per person (t C02e)
SOURCES: World Resources Institute 2005


Which developed countries have not ratified the Kyoto protocol?

Of all the developed countries in the world, only two have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, Australia and the United States.


World Map
SOURCES: UNFCCC
URL: http://www.vitalgraphics.net/climate2.cfm?pageID=12
Cartographer/Designer: Robert Barnes, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Are greenhouse gas emissions growing?

"The majority of emissions have come from rich countries in the past. North America and Europe have produced around 70% of the CO2 from energy production since 1850, while developing countries account for less than one quarter of cumulative emissions."


Global Carbon Dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel burning and cement over the long term
SOURCES: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 3.0. (Washington DC: World Resources Institue, 2006)
Is global warming a serious issue?

"The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response."

SR exec p.i

"Climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world - access to water, food production, health, and use of land and the environment."

SR exec p.vi

"CSIRO research has confirmed that Australia is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The impacts on the economy are projected to be significant and widespread."

CSIRO p.20



Next Section

References

(1) Main greenhouse gases Grid Arendal
http://vitalgraphics.net/climate2.cfm?pageID=6

(2) Global atmospheric concentration of C02 : Grid Arendal

(3) NASA & World Book Encyclopedia

(4) STERN Report, p.4, Part 1


1. The Scientific Evidence
  • How the greenhouse effect works
  • What is global warming
  • What we do that makes global warming worse
  • Current scientific reports
  • Contributors to global warming
Find out more
2. Current Climate Impacts
We are already seeing climate changes from global warming:
  • Rising temperatures
  • Worsening droughts & fires
  • Antarctica, Greenland & Glacier melting
  • Natural disasters
Find out more
3. Future Climate Forecast
There are a large number of studies into global warming which look at:
  • Temperature increases
  • Dangerous climate change
  • Carbon Dioxide increases
Find out more
4. Future Impacts & Policy
Scientific studies predict a large range of impacts:
  • Global economic downturn
  • Stonger cyclones, more often
  • Rising sea levels
  • Agriculture & Fisheries decline
  • Increased extinctions
Find out more
5. What We Can Do
We must all work together to stop global warming:
  • Individuals & Families
  • Organisations
  • Business & Industry
  • Government
Find out more